| Getting serious about the Linux Desktop |
Sep. 14, 2005
Novell's Jack Messman thinks Microsoft Vista is going to be so expensive that it's going to make users think hard about switching to Linux instead.
You know something? He's right.
Vista certainly won't cost a penny less than XP Pro, but there's more to Vista's cost than just the list price. You also have to have the hardware that can run it.
The initial package doesn't look too bad -- if you have a new machine with a 2GHz or faster processor and 512MB of RAM. But, when you add in the graphic requirements, which are still not set, then you're looking at a setup where only a screaming gamer's machine of today can run it... if only they had working video drivers.
Practically speaking, I think you're going to need at least a 3GHz processor and a gigabyte of RAM. I can say that with some confidence, because that's what it's taking me to run the latest beta, Build (5219).
It's also worth noting that my late beta copy of OpenSUSE 10, runs faster on my 1GHz system with 512MBs of RAM sitting right beside my Vista test box.
Now, bleeding edge Windows people won't think twice about upgrading to boxes that can run Vista, come 2007. But, what about all those businesses that are still running Windows 2000?
Did you know that even though W2K is no longer officially supported by Microsoft, there are still more W2K systems than XP boxes running in businesses?
Their machines certainly won't run Vista. If they do upgrade to XP, are they going to want to shell out more money to upgrade again to Vista?
I don't think so.
Microsoft is also making things pretty darn confusing for buyers. John Dvorak is funny as all get out when he says that Microsoft shouldn't stop at a mere "seven" (!!!) versions of Vista, but should also add versions for Desperate Housewives and the Porn Edition.
Seriously, though, who can be expected to keep track of that many different versions of the same operating system? Who'd want to?
Besides, as I've said before, what the heck difference can there be anyway between these versions, except to make six of them crippleware, ala what Microsoft did with XP Home?
So, yes, the Linux desktop does have a shot at breaking Microsoft's monopoly. I see a lot of unhappy people out there in a year or so who won't be able to cost-justify moving to Vista.
I'm not sure, however, that Novell is the company to do it, though.
You see, when Novell looks at the Linux desktop, even though they have the fabulous SUSE Linux Desktop line and they now have community support, the company looks to thin-client and task-worker placement.
NLD (Novell Linux Desktop) is a fine, lightweight, desktop, but that's all it is. It is not, and Novell doesn't claim that it is or will be, an XP replacement.
I can understand Novell's logic. A thin desktop makes a great deal of financial sense to customers. Companies are going to be hard-pressed enough to justify buying Vista for management, techies, and power-users; they're going to really have a fit trying to come up with a reason to put Vista on secretary and line-worker desks.
NLD systems, with ZENworks 7 to remotely manage them, on the other hand, will start looking better and better for most office jobs as Microsoft's operating system and office suites get bigger, bulkier, and ever more expensive.
And, that's great. Hurrah!
But, what I want, darn it, is a power, take-no-prisoners Linux desktop. Technically, there are several really good ones out there already. Xandros, MEPIS, and the aforementioned OpenSUSE all live on systems in my home office. And, let me tell you: operating systems that don't cut the mustard don't stick around here for long.
But, MEPIS and Xandros are both small, and Novell doesn't seem interested in making a play for the high-end desktop market.
Linspire is pretty darn good as well. You can even play many Windows games on it now. But for me, anyway, I still see Linspire as being more of a home distribution. What I want is something that can take down XP Pro -- not just XP Home -- and whatever Microsoft will end up calling its equivalent in Vista.
So, what to do? Well, I'd like to see someone with some serious money -- hello Red Hat, Dell, HP... are you listening? -- partner up with one or more of the powerhouse desktop Linux companies and start working on breaking Microsoft's desktop monopoly.
Desktop Linux is never going to have a better chance than it will in the next eighteen months.
--Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
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