| Winners and losers in the New Linux World |
Nov. 15, 2006
Would you have believed at the end of last summer that Microsoft and Novell would partner over Linux, or that Oracle would create its own brand of Linux? Yeah, I wouldn't have believed it either, but here we are.
So, what does it all mean? Rather than make a snap judgment I decided to sit, wait and watch before trying to make sense of it all. Now, I'm ready to give you my two-cents on who are the winners and losers in this post-deal Linux world.
First, here are the winners. Commercial Linux has taken one giant step forward. Microsoft, Microsoft of all companies, is finally admitting that Linux is good for something. Oracle, by jumping into the Linux distribution business, has also given Linux an enormous endorsement.
It's no longer Linux supporters who are saying that Linux should be taken seriously in business, now everyone is saying that Linux is a real enterprise-worthy operating system.
The big winner from this shift is Novell. While many open-source true-believers hate Novell's guts for making a deal with the devil, excuse me Microsoft, the bottom line is that this deal opens up a lot of doors for Novell.
Novell can now walk into any Microsoft shop in the world and be taken seriously. CIOs and CFOs, who would never even listen to a Linux vendor before, will at least give Novell and its channel partners the time of day.
You know who else, at the end of the day, is also a winner? Red Hat. As the current Linux market leader, everything that helps commercial Linux, also helps Red Hat.
At the same time, some open-source fans, who now feel alienated from Novell, will start supporting Fedora, Red Hat's community Linux distribution. It's been a while since Red Hat enjoyed broad open-source community support. For example, do you really think anyone is going to say that "Red Hat is the new Microsoft" again anytime soon?
If you look at who the losers are here, you can find another reason why I expect Red Hat to come out of this current rough patch just fine. At the top of my losers' list, I have Oracle.
In the weeks since Oracle announced that it was going to have its own Linux, ripped right off Red Hat's distribution, I haven't found a single Oracle customer -- and I've looked -- that wants to switch to Oracle Linux. While none of them wanted to go on record, they all pretty much had the same reasons why: Red Hat's support is good, and Oracle's support is awful.
I'm sure Oracle would like to keep its customers on all-Oracle platforms, the same way that Sun and Microsoft keep their customers. Sun and Microsoft did it from the ground up, though. From what I'm hearing, I just don't see Oracle being able to sell its customers on the virtues of an all Oracle Linux stack.
Another big loser is the GPLv3. People will still argue about what should or shouldn't be in it, but it's not going to matter. Linux isn't going to use it. Linux's developers don't like it one little bit, and now major Linux companies like Novell are making patent deals.
When the GPLv3 finally arrives, it will be adopted by free-software fans, but the people who build, service, and sell Linux are going to ignore the new license.
My final loser is Microsoft. Oh, the boys from Redmond are doing their best to stir up patent FUD. Their latest nonsense is that Microsoft would be willing to offer patent protection to Red Hat customers even if Red Hat doesn't agree to it.
Oh boys, boys, no one buys the idea that there's some dark, evil IP (intellectual property) demon hidden in Linux anymore. Microsoft tried that trick before with its proxy SCO fighting with IBM. And, we all know how well that worked in scaring people away from Linux, don't we?
Certainly, Microsoft could launch a patent suit against a Linux company. After thinking it over, though, I don't see how Microsoft could win. From a PR viewpoint, it would be a complete disaster. Even if Microsoft gets a court win, so what? Linux, and the other Linux vendors, would still be out there.
No, it would be far better for Microsoft, if it just kept the FUD kettle boiling. The company's good at that, and it's a lot cheaper in every way than trying to stomp Linux out in court.
To sum up, I think all the recent changes will end up benefiting Linux, and in particular commercial Linux and its vendors. It's another story, though, for both proprietary software vendors and, oddly enough, the more extreme free-software advocates.
-- Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
Do you have comments on this story?
Talkback here
NOTE: Please post your comments regarding our articles using the above link. Be sure to use this article's title as the "Subject" in your posts. Before you create a new thread, please check to see if a discussion thread is already running on the article you plan to comment on. Thanks!
(Click here for further information)
|
|
|
7 Advantages of D2D Backup
For decades, tape has been the backup medium of choice. But, now, disk-to-disk (D2D) backup is gaining in favor. Learn why you should make the move in this whitepaper.
4 Legal Reasons to Control Internet Access
The Internet is obviously a valuable resource for many organizations. However, many are exposed to legal liability concerns because they fail to control Internet access. Learn if you're safe in this white paper.
Rapidly Resolve J2EE Application Problems
Whether you are in the process of building J2EE applications or have J2EE applications already running in production, you must ensure that they deliver the expected ROI. Learn how in this white paper.
Load Testing 2.0 for Web 2.0
There are many unknowns in stress testing Web 2.0 applications. Find out how to test the performance of Web 2.0 in this white paper.
Build Better Games Online
For the game infrastructure providers, life is complex. Making money from games has become more complicated. Why? Find out in this white paper.
Building a Virtual Infrastructure from Servers to Storage
This white paper discusses the virtual storage solutions that reduce cost, increase storage utilization, and address the challenges of backing up and restoring Server environments.
Gaining Faster Wireless Connections with WiMAX
Welcome to what is quickly becoming the hyperconnected world where anything that would benefit from being connected to the network will be connected. Learn more in this white paper.
Is Your Desktop a Security Threat?
The new wave of sophisticated crimeware not only targets specific companies, but also targets desktops and laptops as backdoor entryways into those business’ operations and resources. Learn how to stay safe in this white paper.
Increasing SAN Reliability by 100 Percent
Storage area networks (SAN) are a strong part of storage plans. Learn how to increase your reliability and uptime by 100 percent in this case study.
|
|
|
|
|
news feed