| After SCO dies |
Jan. 04, 2008
It's going to happen. Some time in 2008, SCO will finally stop thrashing on the floor and die. Will it be Novell draining it dry of its last financial resources in the U.S. District Court in Utah? Or, will it be the bankruptcy court in Delaware divvying up the last bits and pieces of the once-proud Unix company?
Me? I'd bet on Novell doing SCO in at the District Court with a lead pipe. Ah, summary judgment. In any case, SCO's death by suicide—what else would you call suing IBM and other Linux-using companies without proof, or as Novell has shown, without even actually owning Unix's IP (intellectual property)?—will soon be done. That may be the end for SCO, but it will leave a lot of unanswered questions.
Those include: "What will Novell do with Unix?" I don't know, but what I'd like them to do is to open-source as much of the code as they can. There's still some goodness left in Unix that hasn't been duplicated in Linux. For example, even generic Unix System 5 Release 5 can handle up to 32 processors and terabyte-sized files and does extremely well at multi-path I/O.
I don't think, though, we'll see a completely open-source Unix. Ransom Love, the former CEO of Caldera/SCO, had intended on doing just that, but he found that Unix was filled with other companies' copyrighted code. Getting permission to open-source the whole kit and kaboodle would probably be a very expensive job for relatively little value.
Since Novell is a Linux company, it makes perfect sense to me if they were to cherry-pick Unix for its best code and release it to the public. If they elect to go this route, I'd expect to see the first code appearing within a few months of SCO kicking the bucket.
As for OpenServer and UnixWare customers, well, good luck, guys. A handful of resellers and system integrators can keep these systems running for a while, but as the machines age and die, SCO's loyal users will have to switch.
Where will they go? That one, I do know the answer. They'll be moving to Linux. That's because SCO's resellers are already working with Linux or getting ready to. For example, DTR Business Systems, one of SCO's best resellers, is still offering SCO Unix products, but it’s also a Red Hat partner now.
Yes, you may note that DTR is also offering Windows products, but many SCO customers rely on vertical applications. They won't be looking for Windows answers. It will be much easier to port their programs to Linux than to Windows Server 2003 or 2008. SCO Unix to Linux migration won't be a huge business for any system integrator or the like, but it will be a decent small niche for SCO Unix-savvy integrators and developers.
Or, of course, they might try porting to Sun's Solaris or OpenSolaris on Advanced Micro Devices—or less likely—Intel servers. I can't see this happening. Most of SCO's customers are SMBs (small and medium-sized businesses), and Sun has historically targeted the enterprise.
I'm not saying Solaris or OpenSolaris couldn't work for these users. It could. What I don't see is Sun being able to sell to these customers. SCO’s former customers are much more likely to stick with their old reseller partners and those businesses have made their commitment to Linux clear.
In any case, I'm not sure it would be worth Sun's trouble. While SCO has been busy fighting its fruitless wars with IBM, et. al., its customers have continued their steady migration to Linux. How much business could there be left in SCO's customer base? Enough to keep some system integrators busy? Certainly. Enough to make more than a blip on Sun's bottom line? I doubt it.
As for SCO's people? Well, I think they still have a few good engineers. Perhaps Novell, which still maintains a presence in Utah, would make a good home for them. And if any of their sales people were actually able to sell OpenServer or UnixWare to a new customer, someone should snatch them up immediately. Anyone who could sell SCO Unix to customers in the last couple of years could sell Linux to Steve Ballmer.
SCO executives? Well, as the pages of Groklaw detail, they'll come out of it with plump wallets. For example, the
day before SCO filed for bankruptcy, the company gave Ryan Tibbitts, its general counsel, a $50,000 raise and a $50,000 bonus.
Nice work if you can get it.
I wouldn't worry about SCO’s top brass suffering from the company's failure. Their golden parachutes were packed and ready to go long before the company found itself on its death bed. It's a pity, really. Caldera and SCO were both grand companies, but their legacy was squandered on anti-Linux lawsuits that, in the end, came to nothing but tens of millions of wasted dollars.
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
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