| Itanium needs Linux... but does Linux need Itanium? |
May 08, 2006
For years now, I've been hearing about how Intel's Itanium platform was going to be the server-chip to end all other server-chips. It hasn't happened.
I don't think it ever will happen.
Recently, some of Intel's 64-bit Itanium chip allies have been looking to Linux, as a way to give the much maligned architecture a shot in the arms. They've been looking at ways to make the chip more interesting to Linux users.
As Joseph Gonzalez, a Gartner analyst has said, "On the Itanium side, we really don't foresee strong growth during that time. Although it debuted with a lot of hype and fanfare, Itanium hasn't really moved into a commanding role in the server market."
Even when people do predict that Itanium will finally get some traction, they usually damn it with faint praise. IDC recently said it is expecting the Itanium market to grow from $1.4 billion in 2004 to $6.6 billion in 2009 -- nowhere near initial predictions for the chip, but growth nonetheless.
Itanium supporters have suggested that whereas lower-end applications will be run on Intel's Xeon or AMD's Opteron chips, the really big Unix apps will move from POWER and SPARC architectures to Linux on Itanium.
Will they, now?
SGI (Silicon Graphics Inc.) bet the farm that Linux and Itanium on systems like the SGI Prism would become the darling of high-end Linux users. Silicon Graphics just went bankrupt.
"SGI was the most aggressive vendor in terms of enabling the Itanium chip for highest performance and they were sort of the poster boy for HPC (high performance computing) for a long time," noted a buddy of mine who works for a competitor.
He thinks "SGI's strategy to support the Intel Itanium architecture, as opposed to AMD or a combination, contributed heavily to their demise. HP might very well have been in the same boat if they hadn't started selling AMD Opteron servers two years ago."
Interesting, that he should mention HP. HP has always been Itanium's most stalwart friend.
HP isn't giving up on the chip. The Palo Alto giant is planning on adding Itanium to its BladeSystem offerings, which currently run on Xeon and Opteron processors.
Other companies... well that may be another matter. Little birds have been whispering to me that NEC, Unisys, and other members of the ISA (Itanium Solutions Alliance) aren't all that hot for Itanium.
"Everyone loves Itanium except the press" is a line that I and others have often heard.
No. I'd say customers haven't exactly been beating down the doors for Linux/Itanium, or Windows/Itanium, or HP/UX Itanium solutions, for that matter.
It's not that the latest Itanium chips haven't been good. They are. The Itanium family really hit its stride with the Itanium II line -- but it's been too little, too late, and, what I hear over and over again: it's too expensive.
I keep hearing this not just from AMD fans -- you know who you are -- but even from people who can't wait to get their hands on Intel's next desktop chip, the Conroe, which is due out later this year.
It's not like Linux is going to leave the Itanium behind. Both Red Hat and SUSE support it with their latest server offerings. I'm sure they'll do so with their next versions due out this year. But, Linux really doesn't need Itanium to be a success on servers. It's the other way around.
If the makers of Itanium-based servers can manage to put together Linux server packages that aren't just cheaper than Solaris/SPARC systems, but are at least price competitive with Linux/Opteron and, for that matter, Linux/Xeon systems, then they can finally make some serious money from Itanium.
Frankly, I doubt it will happen. Itanium-based product vendors can't seem to understand that while speed is great, affordable speed means even more to today's CFOs.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Intel's forthcoming Montecito, the first dual-core Itanium chip, will convince corporate customers to buy into Linux on Itanium. But, until system-makers cut their Itanium system prices... a lot, I think I may see pigs fly first.
-- Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
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