| Is Microsoft/Yahoo about Windows' failure as a top server platform? |
Feb. 14, 2008
Before my whiney enemies all get up in arms about yours truly once more beating up on Microsoft, I'd like to point out that the idea of Microsoft buying Yahoo being a tacit admission that Windows can't cut the mustard as a top Internet server platform didn't originate with me.
No, the credit, or blame if you prefer, goes to Marcelo Carvalho, an IT manager in San Francisco and Damien Hocking, a Linux-Watch reader who brought Carvalho's thoughts to my attention.
Carvalho, in a talkback on CNN/Money wrote, "I do not know if anybody … has understood the layer beneath a Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)-Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) deal." Caravalho continued, "Microsoft runs on the Windows platform and it has proved inadequate to run big Internet companies. There is not one big Internet company—and I mean "BIG" like Google Inc. (GOOG), Yahoo, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), eBay Inc. (EBAY) and such—that runs on Windows besides Microsoft. Its software platform has been a disaster supporting its search engine, email and other free services."
Therefore, if Microsoft buys Yahoo and moves it to Windows, "Microsoft will go broke because this is just what hasn't worked well." But, if Microsoft doesn't move Yahoo to Windows, "it will be signing the Windows platform obituary because when people realize that Microsoft itself can run on Linux and does not need Windows, they will follow through."
So, to Carvalho, "the simple fact of Microsoft bidding to buy Yahoo means that Microsoft has thrown in the towel on its operating system, and that the Windows platform is a thing of the past."
Well, I won't go that far. But, here's what I do think. He's right. The top Internet companies use Linux, FreeBSD with open-source applications and middleware. If it wasn't for Microsoft eating its own dog food, no company with a top-tier Web presence would be running Windows.
So, yes, Windows doesn't work at that level, and I think Microsoft knows that by now. What I think this move really says is that Microsoft realizes that it's not going to be able to beat Google with its various Live services. As I'd said before, it's no ideal marriage, but Microsoft needs Yahoo to even try to compete on the Web.
There's no way on God's earth that Microsoft can switch all of Yahoo's services to being based on Windows. The IT costs and the time needed to migrate Yahoo's applications to Windows boggles my mind. It would probably cost more than whatever Microsoft ends up paying for Yahoo.
Of course, Microsoft could replace Yahoo's applications with Windows-powered applications, but if they were to do that I think they'd lose all of Yahoo's customers. Ballmer would be better off dumping Microsoft's billions into the Pacific than making that move.
So, what I see happening is Microsoft continuing to let Yahoo run its software its way, and slowly, ever so slowly, trying to use the Yahoo brand to tempt customers into using new Windows Live applications. I don't see it working. While Microsoft wastes time and money trying to catch up with the Google applications of 2008, Google will be continuing to set the technology bar even higher.
By the way, how many of you noticed that Bradley Horowitz, head of Yahoo's Advanced Technology Division, has already jumped ship for Google? People are beginning to worry that by the time Microsoft buys Yahoo, if it does, Yahoo's best and brightest will be long gone.
To me, all this spells real trouble for Microsoft. Microsoft isn't throwing in the towel on Windows. It is, however, trying to make a radical change. I believe it's all but given up on Vista. I believe that Microsoft is admitting that it can't make Windows the backbone of its Internet strategy. But, giving up on Windows? No, they're not doing that.
Without Windows, Microsoft has nothing and they'd need to completely reinvent themselves. They're not ready to do that… yet. Somewhere down the road, though, I think I can still just make out Microsoft Linux.
Seriously, it could happen. It just won't happen anytime soon.
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